South Korean Economy in Recovery

South Korean Won to 1 USD

120 days	latest (Jul 3) 1265.66	lowest (May 11) 1233.76	highest (Mar 2) 1583

In four months, the Korean won has strengthened 20% against the U.S. dollar. If you had bought Korean won at its peak in February, and cashed out your currency account, you would have realized a 60% annualized return. I don’t suggest you start gambling with currencies, but it is interesting to think about. At the time, I was considering wiring some money from my U.S. bank account to my Korean bank account, but felt it was too risky to bet against the dollar.

On February 27, earlier this year, Forbes.com had posted a Reuters article quoting some notable economists on their outlook of the Korean won. Masafumi Yamamoto, head of FX Strategy Japan at RBS in Tokyo had stated a forecast of 1700 won to the U.S. dollar for end of June. Mr. Yamamoto was off by almost 30%. Another economist expected a collapse in Korean exports.

At the time, the Korean won was depressed due to speculation that South Korea would be particularly hard hit by the economy given Korea’s dependence on exports. The weaker won was perhaps the exact reason why the Korean economy today shows signs of recovery.  The weak won was what gave Korean exporters the competitive edge to beat out other manufacturers.  Exports have increased 17.4% since last month due to strong worldwide demand of Korean televisions and cellular phone handsets.

Although still facing banking issues like the rest of the world, South Korea seems to be one of the first countries to be on the road to recovery. In fact, South Korea may be the first Asian country to raise it’s interest rate this November.